Strategic Foresight

Knowledge, Tools, and Methods for the Future

Author(s): Kevin Kohler
Series: CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich
Publication Year: 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of monitoring and addressing low probability, high impact risks and reinforced the willingness to “think about the unthinkable”. This report reviews methods in strategic foresight that can help organizations to deal with and reduce uncertainty. It uses examples from the Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) domains and discusses some caveats, such as information hazards that are particularly relevant to this context. The overview it provides can be useful across a wide range of strategic decision-making processes.

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