CSS News

Nuclear risk reduction has emerged as a promising strategy to mitigate the risks posed by nuclear weapons in a security environment marked by increasing nuclear competition and threats. Concrete measures remain difficult to implement, however, given different understandings of risk, the interconnectedness of conventional and strategic risks, and the manipulation of risks as a conflict tool.

A free, open, and international research and education environment is essential to scientific progress. At the same time, geopolitical tensions pose new challenges to the science, technology, and innovation sector. In many Western countries, approaches to knowledge security are being developed to protect core scientific values and preserve national interests.

At the core of every conflict lies a paradox: political elites claim to be acting on behalf of the people, but violence means that measuring public opinion is incredibly challenging. This is evident today in Ukraine. Given the challenges posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine, how reliable are wartime polls?

The capture of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijani forces in September 2023 signaled a regional power shift. The Armenian military stayed out of the conflict, and Russian troops stationed on the ground to maintain peace failed to prevent hostilities. As Russian influence declines, Armenia is reassessing its relationship with Moscow. Prospects for peace are uncertain and fears of renewed conflict persist.

The Bulletin 2023, which deals with current Swiss foreign and security policy topics, is now available.

The latest CSS Study explores the implications of the US-China interdependence for Switzerland. Starting from a macro level, CSS' Michiel Foulon considers the overall economic and strategic implications of the rivalry. Moving to the micro level, Sophie-Charlotte Fischer and CSS' Julian Kamasa shed a light on the effects of the US-China interdependence on high-tech sectors.

China has an opportunity to expand its influence in Central Asia significantly, as its recent summit with regional leaders demonstrated. This creates both opportunities and challenges for the Central Asian countries, which must contend with the effects of great-power rivalry on their region, argues CSS' Brian Carlson in this edition of the CSS Analyses in Security Policy series.

There is no accepted definition of science diplomacy. As a concept, science diplomacy seeks to navigate two opposing imperatives: addressing common issues and advancing national interests. This tension cannot be resolved. For this reason, science diplomacy will remain a contested and dynamic concept, argues CSS' Leo Eigner in this edition of the CSS Analyses in Security Policy series.

The Military Academy at ETH Zurich and the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich have published the survey «Sicherheit 2023». Since 1999, the annual study has evaluated long-​term trends and tendencies in public opinion on foreign, security and defense policy issues in Switzerland.

Despite various efforts at reconciliation, the road to a viable settlement between Serbia and Kosovo remains long. But without normalizing relations, neither Kosovo nor Serbia is likely to achieve its goals of integration into European governance structures, argue Andrej Marković and Jeronim Perović in the latest edition of the CSS Analyses in Security Policy series.

In recent years, China has emerged as a major player in space exploration. With milestones such as the successful landing of a Chinese rover on the far side of the moon and the completion of its own space station, China’s space program has captured global attention. However, Beijing’s space ambitions have also raised concerns about the use of its space capabilities for military purposes and its lack of transparency in space operations, argues Sophie-Charlotte Fischer in this CSS Analysis.

Strategic Trends offers an annual analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a primary focus on international security. Providing interpretations of key trends rather than a comprehensive survey of events, this publication will appeal to analysts, policymakers, academics, the media, and the interested public alike. This year, Strategic Trends features chapters on China-Russia relations and world order, US tech alliances, extended nuclear deterrence, and India’s foreign policy.

The UN’s counterterrorism framework and its accompanying institutional architecture have grown rapidly since the attacks on 11 September 2001. While UN counterterrorism has made important contributions to certain aspects of the global fight against terrorism, it is also plagued by a number of deep flaws, argues Fabien Merz in this CSS Analysis.

Rapidly developing life sciences produce many exciting and useful innovations, for example in the fight against disease. However, with such powerful advancements also comes the possibility of military misuse. There is therefore an urgent need to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention. The results of the Ninth Review Conference of this Convention may make this possible, argue Sophie Reiners and Oliver Thränert in this CSS Analysis.

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the future of Switzerland and the world has been viewed more pessimistically and neutrality more critically. The willing-ness to cooperate is increasing: a slight majority of the Swiss population calls for a rapprochement with NATO. Voters also want to strengthen the defense ca-pability. This is shown by the evaluations of the "Sicherheit 2023" survey, which is published by the Military Academy (MILAK) at ETH Zurich and the CSS at ETH Zurich.

Wargaming can be a powerful tool for educating soldiers, developing military doctrine, and determining future investment strategies. However, wargaming also has real limitations: if misapplied, wargaming can reinforce bad assumptions and be used to justify unrealistic or faulty battle plans, argues Taylor Grossman in this CSS Analysis.

Moscow’s presence on the African continent increased in the years preceding its invasion of Ukraine. Now, this presence is intimately linked to the war and to the resultant political and economic struggle, argue Charlotte Hirsbrunner and Niklas Masuhr in this CSS Analysis.

Advocacy for a rules-based order has come to define various foreign policies. What this concept entails remains vague, and significant differences in respective understandings persist. From the perspective of its proponents, part of the term’s utility may lie in its ambiguity. The question is whether the new terminology can contribute to a common understanding of the essential rules, norms, and institutions that should govern international relations, argues Boas Lieberherr in this CSS Analysis.

The US-China rivalry continues to intensify as Xi Jinping enters his third term. The United States, working with allies, should aim both to strengthen its competitive position and to stabilize the relationship, argues Brian G. Carlson in this CSS Policy Perspective.

The Lynching in Latin America (LYLA) dataset has now been released. It was created by Enzo Nussio, Govinda Clayton, and a team of collaborators at the CSS and is the first cross-​national lynching event dataset. The LYLA data captures 2818 reported lynching events across 18 Latin American countries from 2010 to 2019.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has far-reaching consequences for the global energy system and for Russia itself. Sanctions and fewer Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe have disturbed the balance between supply and demand in the fossil energy market. Whereas Europe has alternatives to Russian energy, these developments are threatening Russia’s status as a global commodities power, argues Jeronim Perović in this CSS Analysis.

This year’s Bulletin on Swiss Security Policy starts with an interview with Federal President Ignazio Cassis. In the following five contributions, our authors address the use of drones in the military, Switzerland's security and defense policy cooperation in the shadow of the Ukraine war, Swiss priorities in its UN Security Council membership, the interconnections between peace mediation and climate protection, and the role of technology in monitoring ceasefires.

Russian troops have launched attacks on Ukraine from Belarus. The Lukashenka regime is Putin’s closest ally, but their interests diverge. It is thus key to differentiate and read the erratic actions and rhetoric from Minsk as signals towards east, West, and south, argues Benno Zogg in this CSS Policy Perspective.

China appears to have growing concerns about Russia’s war in Ukraine. Although China is not prepared to abandon its partnership with Russia, Western leaders should aim to ensure that China’s support for Russia remains limited. They should also seek China’s support in dissuading Russia from using nuclear weapons, argues Brian G. Carlson in this CSS Policy Perspective.

Solidarity with Ukraine in surviving a war of aggression must be accompanied by realism about the country’s ability to draw closer to EU membership. The sustainability of the accession process depends on straightforwardness about the hurdles posed by the Russian aggression and the domestic reform inertia, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Analysis.

Academics have generally accepted nuclear deterrence as an eternal fact of life, but Russian President Putin's nuclear threats during the war in Ukraine have illuminated the necessity of new research programs into novel thinking beyond nuclear deterrence. In the editorial for the current issue of Science, CSS’ Stephen Herzog argues that a new wave of social and natural scientific research is urgently needed to understand conditions for making global nuclear disarmament desirable and feasible.

Against the backdrop of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia continues to modernize its nuclear forces. Nuclear weapons remain a central part of Moscow’s strategic arsenal, including as tools of coercion. While arms control initiatives are critical to mitigate the dangers associated with nuclear weapons, a credible nuclear deterrent on the part of NATO remains a prerequisite for their success, argues Oliver Thränert in this CSS Analysis.

Seoul is heavily investing in its defense capabilities. While the current government emphasizes that the US-South Korea alliance is central for the country’s security, the long-term strategic challenge will be to balance carefully relations with the US, but also with China and other regional actors in an increasingly volatile security environment. Hence, the importance of global partnerships is growing, argue Linda Maduz and Névine Schepers in this CSS Analysis.

Russia’s predominant role in Central Asia is set to decline after its war in Ukraine. This creates an urgency as well as an opportunity for the Central Asian states to diversify their external ties, argues Chatrina Schumacher in this CSS Blog. Many potential partners seem keen to fill some of the void, but their actual engagement remains limited. The region’s relative stability has priority which favors the ruling elites’ authoritarianism. Conversely, this may foster instability in the long run.

South Korea and its triangular relationship with the US and North Korea are critical for security and stability in Asia. Understanding South Korea’s shifting domestic and international outlook is important for European states, looking for new cooperation opportunities and partners in Asia, argues Linda Maduz in this CSS Policy Perspective.

A partial technological decoupling of the United States and China is already under way. Switzerland will also feel the ripple effects, argues Sophie-Charlotte Fischer in this CSS Policy Perspective.

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine is shaking the foundations of the post-1989 European security order. The states of Europe are re-emphasizing military preparedness as well as economic and social resilience. NATO is experiencing a renaissance as part of these efforts, as exemplified by the accession of Sweden and Finland. The EU appears to be adapting to the new situation as well, seeking a complimentary position vis-à-vis NATO.

While formerly neutral, Sweden and Finland have jointly decided to join NATO in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland’s accession in particular will impact the military balance in the Baltic-Nordic theater of contention between Russia and the alliance. Joining NATO would be the culmination of a longer alignment process for Finland, argue Eemeli Isoaho, Niklas Masuhr and Fabien Merz in this CSS Analysis.

The Strategic Concept seeks to prepare NATO to deal with the deteriorating security environment over the past decade characterized by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the rise of China. Its implementation hinges mainly on the modalities of the alliance’s enhanced deterrence and defense, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Analysis.

In the lead for Survival, the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ bi-monthly journal, CSS researchers Alexander Bollfrass and Stephen Herzog explain that the global nuclear order is very resilient. It can withstand nuclear threats made by Russia during the war in Ukraine and is not on the brink of collapse.

With the war in Ukraine, the Swiss are more pessimistic about the future. The war leads to a more critical view of Swiss neutrality. At the same time, security policy cooperation with NATO or the EU is becoming more popular. In addition, the Swiss want to strengthen Switzerland's defense capabilities. Therefore, a good training and equipment of the army is required.

The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has intensified efforts in Europe to become more independent of Russian fossil fuels. This has given political urgency to ambitions for the development of more renewable energy sources. Access to raw materials outside Europe will be key to this process of energy transition, and it could become a new dimension of geopolitical competition, argues Julian Kamasa in this CSS Analysis.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a myriad of new challenges, including for French security and defense policies. Demand for its defense industries is rising. The French armed forces are now more than ever needed since the end of the Cold War to ensure the defense of Europe, argues Constant Despont in this CSS Analysis.

The IT Army of Ukraine was stood up in an ad-hoc manner without a clearly structured and proven plan. Born out of necessity, the IT Army subsequently evolved into a hybrid construct that is neither civilian nor military, neither public nor private, neither local nor international, and neither lawful nor unlawful. This CSS Cyberdefense Report by Stefan Soesanto provides the first-ever comprehensive analysis of the IT Army’s structure, tasking, and ecosystem.

The Military Academy at ETH Zurich and the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich have published the survey «Sicherheit 2022». Since 1999, the annual study has evaluated long-term trends and tendencies in public opinion on foreign, security and defense policy issues in Switzerland. Due to the war in Ukraine, a follow-up survey was carried out this year, which will be published on July 14, 2022.

The war in Ukraine has also fundamentally changed the security order in Europe. What does that mean for Switzerland and its self-image as a neutral country? In the SRF Tagesgespräch, CSS director Andreas Wenger puts the current debate on neutrality into perspective.

This annual report provides an overview of our activities and is intended to encourage reading of our publications. Our publications are available online here on our website. If you would like to receive regular updates on CSS publications, you can sign up for our monthly newsletter here www.css.ethz.ch/en/center/css-​newsletter.html, or follow us on Twitter (@CSS_Zurich), Facebook (@css.zurich) or LinkedIn.

Russia’s war in Ukraine, conducted behind the shield of nuclear deterrence and the threat of escalation, has increased the salience of nuclear weapons worldwide. It endangers the multilateral norms and processes in place to prevent nuclear proliferation and complicates any near-term prospects for disarmament, argues Névine Schepers in this CSS Policy Perspective.

Russia cannot be integrated into a cooperative security system in Europe in the foreseeable future. The West must support Ukraine and contain Russia's military might. But Russia remains important for the stability of Europe. The question is what role the country should play in a future post-war order, explains Jeronim Perović in this CSS Policy Perspective.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine revitalized NATO and marked the return of US leadership in the alliance. However, the coming months may prove more difficult for NATO to navigate due to a series of dilemmas that could endanger its cohesion, argue Dominika Kunertova and Niklas Masuhr in this CSS Policy Perspective.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine requires NATO to eliminate doubt about its ability and resolve to defend its eastern territory by outweighing its current personnel and equipment understrength. Sweden and Finland’s likely accessions add to this effort. NATO’s adaptation will depend on a bigger European responsibility and renewed public discussions about the importance of security and defense, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Analysis.

New Delhi’s refusal to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine complicates its foreign policy maneuvering. How India positions itself in an increasingly polarized competition for global dominance will become more important. It will continue to leverage conflicting partnerships to secure its own rise, argues Boas Lieberherr in this CSS Analysis.

Strategic Trends 2022 attempts to address important trends in world politics at a time of rapid change and high levels of uncertainty. The authors have covered events up to April 1, fully aware that the situation could change considerably by the time of this volume’s publication. The four chapters cover important strategic trends that will shape international security in the years ahead regardless of the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Together, they address issues of arms and influence.

The war in Ukraine poses some major challenges to Swiss security policy. In an interview with ETH Zurich, CSS Direktor Andreas Wenger explains why we will need to broaden our understanding of defense in the future – and why international cooperation is becoming increasingly important.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February shocked Europe into unity, revitalized NATO, and led several European countries to re-evaluate their defense policies and strategic dependence on Russian energy. However, major changes in the European political and security architecture will take time to materialize, as the old fault lines persist, argues Dominika Kunertova in this CSS Analysis.

China confronts difficult choices in responding to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The war presents China with several risks, but China continues to view Russia as a valuable partner. China remains cautious about supporting Russia in ways that would incur heavy costs, such as helping it to evade sanctions, but it is likely to continue providing rhetorical support and resisting calls to rein in Russia, argues Brian G. Carlson in this CSS Analysis.

The topics of this Russian Analytical Digest issue are the political and economic consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The issue looks at Russia’s role in the post-​Soviet region. It presents a broad analysis of Russia’s preparations for war. It also discusses ways of economic forecasting in view of the abrupt shocks to the Russian economy. Finally it describes Russia’s propaganda strategy using the example of the Bucha massacres.

The war in Ukraine has prompted the German government to overturn its meek security strategy that had lasted over three decades. However, real change would require confronting the root causes of German security policy failures, argues CSS' Alexander Bollfrass in this Foreign Policy article.

Under Emmanuel Macron’s leadership, France has emerged as a European pioneer in the geopolitics of technology. The French government is also acting as a driving force in Brussels, aiming to advance the EU’s technological sovereignty. France will likely continue this proactive course after the presidential elections in April 2022, argues Sophie-Charlotte Fischer in this CSS Analysis.

As the war in Ukraine remains unsolved, many elements of the conflict still hang in the balance. However, early lessons can be drawn no matter the outcome; some military, some political. These will inform policymakers moving forward and highlight future challenges, argue Niklas Masuhr and Benno Zogg in this CSS Analysis.

Russia’s attack on Ukraine calls the security architecture in Europe into question. In an interview with Globe, ETH Professor Andreas Wenger explains the medium- and long-term consequences for international and Swiss security policy

The newly formed AUKUS partnership, a trilateral defense technology arrangement bringing together the US, the UK, and Australia, signals a shift in Washington’s regional posture. It seeks to close ranks with important allies, particularly vis-à-vis China, and illustrates the subordination of non-proliferation and diplomatic concerns to strategic utility, argue Niklas Masuhr and Névine Schepers in this CSS Analysis.

The Islamic State group (IS) seems to have been reduced to a shadow of its former self. Public attention in the West has waned, and the priorities of the international community shifted to other issues. This warrants taking stock of the group’s current status and assessing the dangers it still poses, argues Fabien Merz in this CSS Analysis.

Russia attacked Ukraine. Here we update you with media and other contributions and background analyses by CSS researchers on the current situation.

The Swiss Armed Forces are currently in a transition phase to base their development on a capability-based approach. Several armed forces worldwide have already implemented this and encountered problems. To avoid similar setbacks, it is necessary for the Swiss Armed Forces to focus on the core of the capability-based planning method, including its rigorous application, argues Constant Despont in this CSS Analysis.

In this interview with SRF Echo der Zeit, CSS Director Andreas Wenger talks about Russia's possible military intervention in the Ukraine and, in this regard, the objectives of diplomatic negotiations between Russia and the West. US Secretary of State Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov are meeting for talks in Geneva today.

In the last application process for the sought-after ERC Starting Grants, the European Research Council made 11 awards to ETH researchers worth about CHF 17 million. Due to Switzerland’s non-association, however, the researchers will not receive these grants. The funds will now be provided by the State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI).

Europe’s greater strategic autonomy alone will not provide European security, argues Dominika Kunertova in this CSS Policy Perspective. The Sino-American rivalry is an opportunity for Europe to boost its conventional defense capabilities while galvanizing the transatlantic partnership with a new Chinese dimension.

This year’s Bulletin on Swiss Security Policy starts with an interview with Federal Councilor Viola Amherd. In the following five contributions, our authors address the opportunities for Switzerland through a seat on the UN Security Council, a basis for the debate on a general compulsory military service, Switzerland as a co-creator of the digital space, challenges and opportunities for the OSCE due to changing multilateralism, and international stability and the security of digital products.

The interplay of a pandemic, extreme weather events and geopolitical power dynamics have exposed the fragile networks underpinning the semiconductor industry. Because microchips are almost indispensable in daily life, the current shortage situation raises questions about supply chain security, argues Julian Kamasa in this CSS Analysis.

Every year, the CSS analyzes developments in world politics and their potential consequences for Switzerland over the next eight years. This year, we focus on great-power conflicts and technology competition.

Nuclear arms control is more needed than ever. Building an arms control architecture that is fit for today’s security challenges requires a coherent, innovative, and long-​term political strategy. A coordinated transatlantic approach for such a strategy is necessary to help redesign nuclear arms control for new realities, argue Anna Péczeli, Brad Roberts, Jonas Schneider, Adam Thomson, Oliver Thränert, and Heather Williams in this CSS Policy Perspective Special Edition.

During her visit to ETH Zurich, Defence Minister Viola Amherd sketched a picture of an unstable, unpredictable world to which Swiss security policy must adapt. ETH Zurich and EPFL make an important contribution to the security of Switzerland by training specialist personnel and facilitating knowledge transfer.

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan could serve as an important test for relations between China and Russia. The emerging situation could stimulate increased bilateral cooperation, including in regional security affairs, but it could also create challenges for the relationship. The outcome will affect the dynamics of China-Russia relations in both Central Asia and South Asia, argues Brian G. Carlson in this CSS Analysis.

The three countries over the past five years have benefitted from increased trade with the EU, without however strengthening the rule of law to boost investments and lift them out of economic stagnation. The elites remain unwilling or unable to break vested interests, despite the pressure exercised by the Western actors, and partly because of Russian attempts to counterbalance or undermine pro-Western forces, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Analysis.

For the first time, Switzerland is currently running for a seat as a non-​permanent member of the UN Security Council (SC). The aim of this CSS Study by Fabien Merz is to shed light on experiences and best practices made in other countries with regard to the role and tasks of defense ministries (DM) and army headquarters (HQ) in the context of a SC membership. For this purpose, interviews were conducted with representatives of the DM and HQ from Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Ireland and Norway.

The ongoing robotization of armed forces raises concerns about the desirability of autonomous systems with lethal capacity. In contrast, unarmed military robots have already improved and supplied capabilities unconstrained by human physical limitations. But despite the long-term efforts to develop fully autonomous systems, no military robot can lift the fog of war, argues Dominika Kunertova in this CSS Analysis.

Two European consortia, FCAS and Tempest, have recently set out to develop and manufacture 6th-generation fighter jets. Both projects are motivated by the same basic rationale: regaining European autonomy in a strategic technology cluster. However, they differ not only in their approaches and ambition levels towards this end, but also in key military and politico-industrial parameters, argue Amos Dossi and Niklas Masuhr in this CSS Analysis.

In response to profound changes in the geopolitical landscape, the European Union is pursuing a more independent and assertive international role. This shift has raised questions about how the drive for strategic autonomy and the Union’s complex processes and institutions will affect Europe’s global role. In this forum, thirteen scholars address the challenges for European strategy in the areas of defence, trade, international norms, energy diversification, and relations with other major powers.

The disputed presidential election in 2020, culminating in a mob storming the Capitol, poses challenges for US democracy, argue Cora Alder and Emanuel Schäublin in this CSS Analysis. In a polarized society, an increasingly confrontational version of Christian nationalism gains support among mostly white Americans who oppose efforts to address racial injustice and gender inequality.

Coordination at the national level is key to managing complex crises. In many countries, the COVID-19 pandemic showed a lack of coordination. To address this shortcoming, Germany plans to reform its crisis response authorities. This includes creating a Joint Competence Center for Civil Protection. Other countries could use this as a source of inspiration for reassessing their own crisis management systems, argues Benjamin Scharte in this CSS Analysis.

This CSS Study examines the challenges that the broad context of the global crisis of multilateralism and increased geopolitical polarization poses for the OSCE and how it has responded to them. It also highlights the chances that have emerged. Insights into challenges faced by Swiss Ambassador Thomas Greminger and how he sought to navigate the OSCE through stormy waters form the heart of this study, flanked by analyses of the OSCE’s responses to conflicts in Ukraine and Transnistria.

In time for the meeting of representatives of Poland, Sweden and Switzerland, member states of the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC) on the Korean Peninsula, for their annual consultations in Geneva, CSS’ Linda Maduz study on Confidence and security-building on the Korean Peninsula and the role of Switzerland is out. Participants in the meeting include delegations from foreign ministries of the three countries as well as the heads of their respective military missions.

The Military Academy at ETH Zurich and the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich have published the annual survey "Sicherheit 2021". Since 1999, the study has evaluated long-term trends and tendencies in public opinion on foreign, security and defense policy issues in Switzerland.

The new Strategic Concept must clarify the tasks that NATO should undertake in the great-power competition with, and defense of common values against, Russia and China, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Policy Perspective.

The nuclear ban treaty’s entry into force gives its advocates in parliaments and civil society momentum to increase pressure on nuclear-armed states and their military allies. This is notably the case in Europe, where the treaty’s impact on longstanding positions could affect nuclear disarmament efforts on a global scale, argues Névine Schepers in this CSS Analysis.

Cruise missiles and boost gliders that can travel faster than five times the speed of sound without revealing their target until the very last moment have become a reality. While hypersonic weapon systems are on their way to change the strategic stability parameters by the middle of this decade, the magnitude of their disruptive effect remains a known unknown, argues Dominika Kunertova in this CSS Analysis.

This annual report provides an overview of our activities and is intended to encourage reading of our publications. Our publications are all freely available online here on our website. If you would like to receive regular updates on CSS publications, you can sign up for our monthly newsletter here www.css.ethz.ch/en/center/css-newsletter.html, or follow us on Twitter (@CSS_Zurich), Facebook (@css.zurich) or LinkedIn.

Strategic Trends 2021 offers a concise analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a focus on international security. It features chapters on China-Russia relations and transatlantic security, Franco-German-British security cooperation after Brexit, Turkey’s power projection in the Middle East and beyond, Europe and major-power shifts in the Middle East, and Japanese and South Korean perspectives on changing power configurations in Asia.

After the forced landing of a passenger jet by Belarus and the arrest of regime opponent Roman Protasevich, international observers are struggling to find an adequate reaction. A series of media contributions by CSS senior researcher Benno Zogg provide orientation.

China, the US, and India are competing for political, economic, and military influence in the Indian Ocean. In the future, the strategic order in this institutionally underdeveloped region will become more multipolar and unstable, argues Boas Lieberherr in this CSS Analysis. Maritime security is at risk, with possible repercussions for security of supply in Europe.

While different aspects of identity are increasingly understood to shape diverse experiences of, and agency within conflict, religion and gender are still often treated as separate categories, argues Cora Alder in this CSS Analysis. Intersectional analysis examines gender and religion as overlapping rather than parallel categories, enabling a thorough understanding of conflict dynamics and inclusive peace programming strategies.

The debate around the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is overly politicized. A change in perspective is needed. In the long term, Ukraine as the country most affected could strengthen its position by developing into a green energy producer within the European energy market, argue Jeronim Perović and Maria Shagina in this CSS Policy Perspective.

European armed forces continue to depend on the imports of advanced drones from the United States and Israel. To contribute to their strategic autonomy, Europeans need to first align their strategic requirements to deliver a joint European drone solution, argues Dominika Kunertova in this CSS Policy Perspective. 

In recent years, states in the Western Balkans have increasingly rearmed. The arms purchases – often accompanied by nationalist rhetoric – endanger the fragile trust in a region where conflicts remain unresolved, argue Andrej Marković and Jeronim Perović. Serbia plays a key role in these dynamics. Belgrade also uses arms purchases to deepen its relations with Russia and China.

The financial strengthening and institutional development of the new multilateral vaccine platform COVAX is in the health, economy and security interests of Western states, argue Michèle Gemünden and Jan Thiel in this CSS Policy Perspective.

Increasing tensions between nuclear powers and the disruptive potential of various technologies are heightening nuclear risks, argue Névine Schepers and Oliver Thränert in this CSS Policy Perspective. While nuclear arms control treaties may be difficult to negotiate, informal measures can provide opportunities to reduce risks.

External powers have a key impact on what is happening in the war in Yemen, making the situation even more complex. Under its new president, Joe Biden, the US is strongly committed to ending the conflict. This remains a difficult task, argues Jeremy Guggenheim in this CSS Analysis. Even if the external actors were to retreat prematurely, Yemen would remain a divided country where different ethnic groups have a profound mistrust of each other.

The CSDP missions in Ukraine, Kosovo, and Iraq operate from the right diagnosis of the need to strengthen the security sectors and the rule of law, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Analysis. However, their limited impact so far raises questions as to whether the EU is able to increase the missions’ leverage in the host countries and thereby facilitate the desired reforms.

As Alexander Lukashenko has become a toxic figure at home and abroad, three scenarios for the regime’s future are perceptible. Each has important foreign policy implications, and Russia is key in all of them, argues Benno Zogg in this CSS Policy Perspective.

In South-East Asia, the emerging great power China is challenging the supremacy of the US, which is clinging to its leading role in the region, argue Linda Maduz and Simon Stocker in this new CSS Analysis. Although the countries of South-East Asia agree that the great power conflict is harming them as individual countries and as a region, they are, nevertheless, seeking mainly selective, country-specific solutions in response to their shrinking room for maneuver.

This edited volume compiled by CSS director Andreas Wenger and Alex S. Wilner focuses on contemporary denial, bridging the theoretical gap that persists between classical deterrence theory and contemporary insecurity.

The US has maintained a relatively passive approach to Libya under President Donald Trump, whose administration largely left the Libyan dossier to Egypt, several Arab Gulf states, Turkey, Europeans, and Russia. In 2021, however, America’s new leadership will probably try to assert US influence in the war-torn country more actively, argue CSS Lisa Watanabe and Giorgio Cafiero in this CSS Blog.

The Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zürich would like to wish you all a happy holiday season. During the holidays, we look back over some of the core themes covered by our Think Tank and researchers in 2020.

According to this CSS Policy Perspective by Matthias Leese, data-driven analytics can increase the effectiveness and efficiency of police work. Police departments should however proceed with care, as tools such as predictive policing raise a number of concerns regarding human rights and civil liberties.